This article was originally published in on August 14, 2025. It draws from findings in the report by the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations, which includes Vincent Rigby among its authors.
Canada should adopt a 鈥渟elective engagement鈥� strategy to manage dealings with China that could reap more trade benefits from the authoritarian state while avoiding entanglement in the rising rivalry between Washington and Beijing, a new report by foreign policy and business leaders says.
A slew of protectionist measures unveiled by Donald Trump this year hikes the cost of imported goods for American consumers and seeks to force foreign countries, including Canada, to buy access to the U.S. market by making investment and trade liberalization commitments to the United States.
China, as the world鈥檚 second-largest economy, has sought to capitalize on the ensuing chaos in international commerce by portraying itself as a more predictable trading partner than Mr. Trump鈥檚 United States.
The report by the Expert Group on Canada-U.S. Relations says there is good reason to be skeptical of Beijing鈥檚 鈥渃harm offensive鈥� where it鈥檚 鈥渁iming to rebrand its global image as co-operative and open for business.鈥�
The report鈥檚 authors include Perrin Beatty, a former defence minister and business leader; Vincent Rigby, a former national-security and intelligence adviser; former Canadian ambassador Jonathan Fried; former trade negotiator John Weekes; Meredith Lilly, who was adviser to former prime minister Stephen Harper; and Fen Hampson, chancellor鈥檚 professor and professor of international affairs at Carleton University.
As the authors note, China has not hesitated to 鈥渨eaponize trading relationships with Canada when it has been unhappy with Canadian policies,鈥� such as the tariffs it imposed on farm products after Ottawa arrested a Chinese tech executive in 2018.
鈥淭he same regime that is now extending an open hand has also engaged in massive intellectual-property theft, economic coercion, arbitrary detentions, and aggressive foreign policy moves ranging from the militarization of the South China Sea to support for Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine.鈥�
Still, they say, Canada may find it hard to avoid deepening economic ties with China in some areas 鈥渋n a world where U.S. economic leadership has become transactional, punitive and erratic.鈥� Canada鈥檚 reliance on China to buy farm products and energy is significant, they note.
The report鈥檚 authors say Prime Minister Mark Carney must, therefore, sketch out a roadmap governing how Canada can navigate the trade-offs and tensions of deeper engagement with China, 鈥渁 superpower it can neither fully trust nor afford to ignore.鈥�
As part of this new strategy, the report says, Mr. Carney should seek a bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the margins of the fall APEC Summit in South Korea.
It says Canada must abandon any expectation that it can change China by engaging with it. 鈥淐hina is not converging with the West. It is not liberalizing. It is not evolving in response to trade, dialogue, or educational exchanges,鈥� the report says.
In recent decades, 鈥渢he Chinese Communist Party only strengthened its grip on power, intensified state surveillance, and promoted its own model of authoritarian capitalism.鈥�
Canada may face pressure from the United States to copy any new trade actions it takes against China. The report鈥檚 authors warn Ottawa not to blindly follow but propose alternatives.
鈥淭he United States is already pressuring allies to adopt parallel tariffs against China, and Canada may soon be asked to mirror American measures at a significant cost to our country,鈥� the report says.
The Expert Group is a collaboration between Carleton University鈥檚 Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the University of Calgary鈥檚 School of Public Policy.
They recommend that Mr. Carney issue a statement setting out his foreign-policy and national-security principles.
The report calls on Ottawa to champion a different mechanism for addressing U.S. concerns about China鈥檚 dumping of goods in foreign markets below fair-value price and transshipment, or trying to funnel Chinese products through third countries into the United States.
鈥淩ather than solely reflexively adopting the U.S. tariff playbook, Canada should propose a more strategic complement, such as a trilateral monitoring and verification mechanism across all three North American markets, similar to that of the European Union to track and deter Chinese dumping, but also to monitor surreptitious transshipment diversions via Canada and Mexico to the US.鈥�
Canada is facing escalating retaliation from Beijing for the 100-per-cent tariffs it imposed on Chinese-made electric vehicles in 2024 as part of a joint effort by the former Joe Biden administration to protect the North American auto sector from a glut of EVs from China.
The report warns against veering too far from Washington on China or, alternatively, marching in lockstep with the U.S. 鈥淐onspicuous independence in Canada鈥檚 China policy risks retaliation from Washington; too much alignment risks compromising Canadian sovereignty and efforts to diversify our global economic partnerships.鈥�
The authors say Canada needs to provide more clarity on barriers to foreign investment: a government-wide delineation of which areas are off-limits or open.
鈥淎 new policy framework would contain tiered sectoral sensitivity guidelines with graduated 鈥榬isk tiers鈥� for different kinds of inbound and outbound foreign investment transactions across key sectors of the Canadian economy,鈥� the report says.
Even as it deepens trade relations with China, Canada must send an unequivocal message to Beijing: 鈥渢hat any attempt to intimidate Chinese Canadians or silence dissent through threats, harassment, or coercion will be met with the full force of Canadian law and international condemnation.鈥�
Similarly, Ottawa must adopt a zero-tolerance approach to the theft of intellectual property and the infiltration of research and educational institutions by Chinese state interests, the report says.
